Neuroprobability of events in the system of problems of behavioral economics

• Fersht V.M.

  V. Fersht. Center of Applied Medicine "Biomed", Moscow State University by the name Lomonosov. Moscow. Russia

• Латкин Александр Павлович

  A. Latkin. Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service Center for Science and Education Programs of the World Health Organization (WHO) Far Eastern Committee of the Russian Federation for UNESCO. Vladivostok. Russia

• Ching Manho

  профессор Центра научных и образовательных программ Всемирной ор- ганизации здравоохранения (ВОЗ) при Владивостокском государственном университете экономики и сервиса, президент Ассоциации IAPF/IMECC. Женева. Швейцария, предсе- датель Международного комитета по медицинскому сотрудничеству. Шанхай. Китай

At the turn of the XX–XXI centuries, numerous studies of scientists are devoted to the phenomenon of behavioral economics with the accumulation of data on significant deviations of humanity from a rational model of behavior. Now it can be considered proven that now and in
the future the mood of people is more determined by irrational behavior, which leads to making ineffective decisions in politics and economics. The article discusses a new approach to calculating the probability of success of events or projects based on a combination of mathematical calculation of probability with the latest advances in psychology in the field of practical use of the subconscious and irrationality. The authors propose for calculations a new test for the index of neuroprobability of event success and a method for increasing its probability, which is based on one more test. This is a test for the coefficient of irrational possibilities to achieve the desired outcome of an event in terms of tolerance
for uncertainty and distributed attention. In general, the results presented in the article open up a new opportunity for a more accurate calculation of probability using an irrational consciousness that complements computer calculations and allows predicting future
events, which is of great practical importance for using behavioral economics.

Keywords: behavioral economics, irrational consciousness, neuroprobability, tolerance to uncertainty,
distributed attention, network models of the formation of implicit (unconscious) relationships,
allostasis, psychomathematics